Hawaii +8.5 2.2% play
There is a lot of noise here going on with Hawaii as their QB, and RB transferred and rumors of Todd Graham mistreating players. There is a possibility the players don't care, and they don't show up, but that's possilbe for every game on the slate. I’m not going to feed into the noise too much, and I’ll take the extra 5 points of line value, and back Hawaii who will be playing at home in an environment they are familiar with. It is typically very windy on the islands, and Hawaii typically uses that to their advantage along with the weather and time change that Memphis won’t be used to. Todd Graham is also a defensive minded coach and I don’t see Memphis being able to get margin here.
Memphis does not have the elite offense they have had in the past. They ranked 95th in rushing ypc, and while they rank 34th in epa pass offense they go up against a Hawaii pass defense that has been very good at home they rank 53rd in epa pass defense, but the wind could be an issue for Memphis passing game, but also they are playing without star WR Calvin Austin who was over 30% of their passing offense as he is preparing for the NFL draft. I just don’t see how Memphis gets margin here. Memphis has not played well on the road -10 TO margin, while Hawaii is +6 at home, and have given teams fits at home. They beat Fresno State, Colorado State and only lost by 7 to San Diego State. Backup QB Brayden Schager was the QB when they beat Fresno State at home. Todd Graham is a surprising 6-4 in bowl games, and I see Hawaii playing a close game here. They are the better rushign offense, and the better rushing defense and in a game with wind that will be very valuable getting over a TD.
